Dodgers, Padres, more: A May bold prediction for every NL West team

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The NL West has been an interesting division so far in 2023. The Arizona Diamondbacks head NL West going into May, while the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres both seek more consistency. The San Francisco Giants are struggling to keep pace, while the Colorado Rockies have not competed for much of the season so far.

Here are some bold predictions for each NL West team for the month of May

Los Angeles Dodgers – Max Muncy to drop out of top 10 HR leaders

Max Muncy is the current home run leader in MLB, not just NL West, with 11 home runs. The Los Angeles Dodgers infielder has been producing dingers in 2023, but the prediction is that this won’t continue.

Looking at Baseball Savant’s Home Runs Leaderboard, which analyses home runs, just 27% of these would have been a home run in all 30 ballparks. The hitters chasing Muncy are all above him in this measure. Patrick Wisdom (Cubs), Pete Alonso (Mets), and Rafael Devers (Red Sox) are just one homer behind Muncy in the table.

Despite Muncy’s expected HR rate (xHR) being superior to his rivals, he is on a two-game hitless streak and three games since his last home run. The prediction is that the four-homer spread from Muncy to 10th place will be bridged and then some after a quieter May.

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